With the Stanley Cup Playoffs roughly two months away, it is the perfect time to project who are the favourites to win it all in 2023. Usual suspects such as Boston, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Vegas all look like potential cup contenders. However, a Renaissance year in New Jersey has them believing they can make a run, and surprising events in Seattle have a fresh franchise dreaming of a Vegas-like run in 2018. Toronto is hoping they can finally get over the 1st-round hump, and Winnipeg is built like a dangerous playoff team. Don’t count out defending champions Colorado either as they are getting heathier by the day.
Now, predicting the slog which is the Stanley Cup Playoffs can be a virtual Impossibility. Injuries, hot goaltending, and puck luck can make April, May and June appear akin to a roll of the dice. However, after investigating some key statistics of the past ten Stanley Cup winning teams, some clarity has come. When thinking of what builds a Cup contender, a handful of components are at the forefront: strong-to-dominant 5v5 play, good-to-exceptional goaltending, top tier specialty teams, and of course, a bit of luck.
The chart below includes some of the 5v5 analytical statistics that I consider to be of peak importance for a top team in the league:
| CF% (Corsi For Percentage) | The sum of shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots over the shots against, missed shots against and blocked shots against at 5v5 |
| FF% (Fenwick For Percentage) | Any unblocked shot attempt (goals, shots on net and misses) over the unblocked shot attempts against at 5v5 |
| GF% (Goals For Percentage) | Percentage of total Goals in games that team played that are for that team over total goals against at 5v5 |
| HDSV% (High Danger Save Percentage) | Percentage of high danger shots against that team that were saved at 5v5 |
I consider these specific categories to be dire for a team to be competitive in the regular season and even more so in the playoffs. Five versus five play for a team is humongous. Playoff games, as the eye-test would tell any viewer, are tighter checked, tighter officiated games. Therefore, the majority of the game is played at equal strength. Teams cannot expect to be on the powerplay for 10+ minutes in a playoff game; this is where your 5v5 play is key. Teams with a high CF%, FF%, and GF% at 5v5 generally have the puck more often in these situations, and are in more offensive positions. As well, they are outscoring their opponent in these situations. Furthermore, with a strong 5v5 HDSV%, their goaltenders are able to make crucial saves when the breakdowns do happen.
Here is where the last ten Stanley Cup winners stacked up in these categories during the regular season:
| CF% | FF% | GF% | HDSV% | Other | |
| Colorado (2022) | 7th | 9th | 5th | 5th | 7th PP% |
| Tampa Bay (2021) | 9th | 9th | 12th | 1st | 9th PP% 1st PK% |
| Tampa Bay (2020) | 5th | 6th | 3rd | 5th | 5th PP% |
| St. Louis (2019) | 10th | 8th | 10th (1st) | 21st (7th) | Numbers in brackets are from Binnington takeover on Jan 3 |
| Washington (2018) | 24th | 27th | 10th | 19th | 31st HDCF% 7th PP% 2nd S% 3rd PDO (S% +SV%) |
| Pittsburgh (2017) | 16th | 7th | 4th | 6th | 4th PP% |
| Pittsburgh (2016) | 2nd | 5th | 4th | 13th | 5th PK% |
| Chicago (2015) | 2nd | 7th | 8th | 2nd | 20th PP% |
| Los Angeles (2014) | 1st | 1st | 3rd | 3rd | 27th PP% |
| Chicago (2013) | 4th | 3rd | 1st | 10th | 19th PP% 3rd PK% |
A common theme amongst these former champions is they all find themselves within the top ten of the league in these major categories. Though, a few outliers do foreground themselves to the viewer. Take the 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning for example; their GF% was still above league average (12th) but isn’t necessarily what you’d expect from a Cup-winning team. Their GF% was countered by their outstanding goaltending at 5v5 (1st in HDSV%), as well as their exceptional specialty teams (9th PP%, 1st PK%).
In 2019, the St. Louis Blues drastically improved their 5v5 defensive numbers, as their HDSV% moved from 21st in the league to 7th when Jordan Binnington became the full-time starter (from January 3rd onwards).
Pittsburgh in 2016 and 2017, Chicago in 2013 and 2015, and Los Angeles in 2014 were all utterly dominant 5v5 teams, specifically the 2014 Kings. These teams all ranked in the top five in at least two of these statistics (minus the 2016 Penguins who were 6th in HDSV%) and in some cases three or four of these statistics. Dominating the play at 5v5 was the driving force for these clubs. The 2014 Kings could then overcome an abysmal powerplay; same goes for the 2013 and 2015 Blackhawks. As well, if these teams faltered slightly when 5v5 (Pittsburgh was 13th in HDSV% in 2016, Chicago was 10th in HDSV% in 2013) they made up for it with an astute penalty kill (Pittsburgh was 5th in PK% in 2016, Chicago was 3rd in 2013). These teams appeared to compliment themselves with other key areas in order to make up for their lacking areas 5v5.
However, one of the components mentioned that you need in order to be a contender is some degree of luck. Analytically speaking, the 2018 Washington Capitals seemed to have luck on their side. To make up for their below-average 5v5 play, they leaned heavily on a 7th ranked PP% and were fortunate to have the 2nd rated shooting percentage at 5v5. Though their CF% and FF% were amongst the bottom half of the league, they still kept a top-ten GF% at 5v5. Even though the Capitals ended up winning the Cup in 2018, we can consider them an outlier champion of the last decade.
Using these statistics, we can look at teams so far in the 2022-23 regular season to project some possible Cup contenders.
Eastern Conference
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is somewhat of an analytical darling this season: they rank 1st in CF% and FF%, 2nd in GF%, 10th in HDSV% and 5th in PK%. The Hurricanes have established themselves as a high-flying 5v5 offensive powerhouse. All of these numbers would suggest a deep playoff run from the Hurricanes.
Boston Bruins
This should come as no surprise as the Bruins have dominated the league for much of 2022-23. They rank 8th in FF%, 1st in GF%, 1st in HDSV%, 7th in PP% and 1st in PK%. Though they find themselves outside the top-ten in CF% at 5v5, their outstanding goaltending and specialty teams this season make them a daunting task for any opponent come this spring.
Florida Panthers
Though Florida is clinging to a wild card spot right now in the East, their underlying numbers could ease their stress (perhaps only slightly). They rank 4th in CF%, 5th in FF%, 10th in GF%, and 4th in HDSV%. As the Panthers get some of their key pieces to 100% health and have their top players perform like top players, they should find themselves in the playoffs and a tough matchup to boot.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs rank 9th in CF%, 7th in FF%, 5th in GF%, 3rd in HDSV%, and 5th in PP%. With a major acquisition (Ryan O’Reilly) already apart of a star-studded lineup, the Leafs are without a doubt all in in 2022-23. Toronto might be one of the teams needing that aforementioned luck to put them over the top, based solely on the history of the team.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is built like a champion, and the numbers emulate that. They rank 7th in CF%, 9th in FF%, 6th in GF%, 2nd in HDSV%, 3rd in PP% and 10th in PK%. Their combination of strong 5v5 and specialty team numbers make them a perennial playoff problem for any team drawing them in the spring.
Western Conference
Seattle Kraken
The Western Conference is much less clear. Not many teams exhibit all the components needed to win the Cup; but Seattle is one of the closest teams to that. They rank 6th in CF%, 6th in FF%, and 3rd in GF%. However, their goaltending and specialty teams are more than enough to raise a red flag when it comes to playoff hockey. Being near the bottom of the league in HDSV%, PP% and PK% makes it appear that they don’t have all the pieces for a playoff run.
Dallas Stars
Though being outside the top-ten in CF% and FF%, Dallas is 7th in GF%, 5th in HDSV%, and 4th in PK%. For what this team might lack in analytical offensive categories, they are stingy enough defensively to be an intriguing pick to come out of the West.
Honorable Mentions:
New York Rangers
10th in FF%, 9th in GF%, 7th in HDSV%
Los Angeles Kings
8th in CF%, 4th in FF%, 2nd in PP%
New Jersey Devils
3rd in CF%, 3rd in FF%, 4th in GF%
Colorado Avalanche
Eye Test
Carter is a professional hockey player, currently playing in Germany. You can follow him on Twitter @carter_popoff.
You can follow Hit the Cut on Twitter @hitthecutblog.
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